Crude Oil Price Update – Bullish Over $65.82, Bearish Under $64.67

August West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled lower on Tuesday as investors continued to brace for the announcement of production hikes at the OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22-23. Volatility is still at heightened levels, however, because no one is sure of the size of the increase in output or when they will take place.

Furthermore, there is likely to be some opposition to the increases with Venezuela, Iran and Iraq expected to exert their veto powers. The markets are also being lightly supported by a supply disruption in Libya.

Helping to put a lid on the market and end all threats of a short-covering rally after Monday’s strong reversal to the upside was the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $63.40 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $67.03 will change the main trend to up.

The major support is the long-term 50% level at $64.67. This is followed by the April 16 main bottom at $61.43.

The short-term range is $67.03 to $63.40. Its retracement zone at $65.22 to $65.64 is new resistance.

The main range is $72.70 to $63.40. If the trend changes to up, we could see the rally extend into its retracement zone at $68.05 to $69.15.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Tuesday’s close at $64.90 and the intraday price action, the direction of the August WTI crude oil futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $64.67.

A sustained move over $64.67 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a fast move into its short-term retracement zone at $65.22 to $65.64.

Taking out $65.64 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the upside momentum needed to overtake the high for the week at $65.82. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $67.03 the next major target.

A sustained move under $64.67 will signal the presence of sellers. This could generate the downside momentum needed to challenge this week’s low at $63.40. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $61.43.