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James Hyerczyk
Crude Oil Pump

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher shortly after the regular session opening, but the market is trending water. Although it posted a higher-high on the daily chart, there was very little follow-through to the upside. This suggests the start of a possible transition period.

Given the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the early price action has also put the market in a position to post a closing price reversal top. This won’t mean the trend is changing to down, but it will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. This could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

At 1235 GMT, November WTI Crude Oil futures are trading $75.45, up $0.15 or +0.20%.

Daily November WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Today’s early price action signaled a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $67.79 will change the main trend to down.

Although a change in trend is highly unlikely, a trade under yesterday’s close at $75.30 will put the market in a position to form a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $71.47 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is $71.47 to $75.91. Its 50% level or pivot at $73.69 is the first downside target.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the November WTI Crude Oil market on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at $75.30.

A sustained move over $75.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a breakout potential breakout over $75.91.

A sustained move under $75.30 will put the market in a position to form a closing price reversal top. On an intraday basis, this move could drive the market into a support cluster at $73.69 to $73.69.

Weekly November WTI Crude Oil

Alternative Analysis:  Based on the weekly chart, the direction of the November WTI crude oil market will be determined by trader reaction to a long-term downtrending Gann angle at $75.52.

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