Crude Oil Price Update – Direction Being Controlled by Short-Term Pivot at $52.19

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading flat to slightly better early Monday. Supporting the market is a slight dip in the rig count. Perhaps putting a lid on prices are concerns the Fed could drive the U.S. Dollar higher when it makes its interest rate and monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. A stronger greenback could have a negative impact on foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude oil.

At 0604 GMT, February WTI crude oil futures are trading $51.53, up $0.05 or +0.12%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $54.77 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $49.60 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $50.60 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside. Another minor bottom comes in at $50.31.

The main range is $49.60 to $54.77. Its 50% level or pivot at $52.19 has been controlling the price action for nine trading sessions.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the recent price action, the direction of the February WTI crude oil futures contract today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $52.19.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $52.19 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking the December 13 high at $53.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the minor top at $54.44, followed closely by the main top at $54.77.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $52.19 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the December 13 low at $50.60. Taking out this level will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the next minor bottom at $50.31.

If $50.31 fails the look for a potential drive into the main bottom at $49.60. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.