Crude Oil Price Update – Early Tuesday Outlook Sees Strength Over $75.50, Weakness Under $75.46

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures nudged higher on Monday in limited holiday trading as investors continued to monitor a disagreement inside OPEC+ about output policy that led to a third day of talks to try to break an impasse among producers in the group.

OPEC and its allies resumed talks on Monday after failing to reach a deal last week amid a standoff between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

At 17:19 GMT, September WTI crude oil futures are trading $75.46, up $1.10 or +1.48%.

ING Economics also said OPEC+’s failure to come to a deal may provide some brief upside to the oil market but said “it could also signal the beginning of the end for the broader deal, and so the risk that members start to increase output.”

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Monday when buyers took out the July 1 high at $75.23. A trade through $71.28 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is $71.28 to $75.50. Its pivot at $73.39 is potential support.

Additional potential support levels come in at $71.67 and $70.05.

The short-term range is $61.06 to $75.50. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $68.28 to $66.58 will become the primary downside target.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the September WTI crude oil futures contract early Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $75.46.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $75.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out $75.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. The next potential upside target is the psychological $80.00 level.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $75.46 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the pivot at $73.39. Look for buyers on the first test, but if it fails, the selling could possibly extend into $71.67 to $71.28.

If $71.28 fails as support then look for a move into $70.05.