Crude Oil Price Update – Main Trend Up, But Momentum Trending Down

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading slightly higher at the mid-session. The market is also posting an inside move which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

The market continues to be underpinned by optimism over the U.S.-China trade deal and its potentially positive impact on global crude oil demand growth. The deepened OPEC+ supply cuts which began on January 1 are also providing support.

At 16:07 GMT, February WTI crude oil is trading $61.15, up $0.09 or +0.15%.

Perhaps putting a lid on prices is Friday’s ISM US Manufacturing PMI report and the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventories report for the week-ending December 27. Both reports could trigger a response by crude oil traders.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 30.

A trade through $62.34 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through the last main bottom at $54.75.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $60.02 will change the minor trend to down. This will also confirm the shift in momentum to down.

The major retracement zone at $58.66 to $57.06 is a potential downside target and support area.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $61.15, the direction of the February WTI crude oil futures contract the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $61.11.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $61.11 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create a labored rally with potential resistance angles lined up at $61.75, $61.84 and $62.09. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the $62.34 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $61.11 will signal the presence of sellers. The next target is Tuesday’s low at $60.63. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the minor bottom at $60.02. This level is also a trigger point for another steep break with the target $58.66.