Crude Oil Price Update – Momentum Could Shift to Downside on Close Under $66.28

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Tuesday. After touching a two-month high earlier in the session, the market plunged following a BBC report that progress was made in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, with an announcement on a deal expected tomorrow.

The Russian envoy in Vienna says significant progress has been made in efforts toward an agreement to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, according to the report.

The news means more oil could be unleashed on the market sooner than expected.

At 16:57 GMT, July WTI crude oil is trading $65.17, down $1.11 or -1.67%. This is down from an intraday high of $67.02.

In focus later will be this week’s U.S. supply reports, expected to show a 1.7 million barrel rise in crude inventories. The American Petroleum Institute’s report is due to be released at 20:30 GMT.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $63.12 will change the main trend to down. A move through the intraday high at $67.02 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. A new minor top has formed at $67.02.

The new minor range is $63.12 to $67.02. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at $65.07.

The short-term range is $60.55 to $67.02. Its retracement zone at $63.79 to $63.02 is the first downside target and potential support area. The last main bottom at $63.12 is inside this zone.

The main range is $57.18 to $67.02. If the main trend change to down then look for the break to extend into its retracement zone at $62.10 to $60.94.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the July WTI crude oil market into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $66.28.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $66.28 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the intraday pivot at $65.07. Since the trend is up, look for a technical bounce on the first test of this level.

Taking out $65.07 late in the session could trigger an acceleration into $63.79 to $63.02. Taking out $63.12 will change the main trend to down.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $66.28 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible breakout over the intraday high at $67.02.

Side-Notes

A close under $66.28 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction that could lead to a change in trend if the selling pressure is strong enough.

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