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James Hyerczyk
WTI Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading at their high of the session late Monday, recovering more than 62% of last week’s late sell-off. Fueling the rebound is the slow return of U.S. crude output cut by frigid conditions, which served as a reminder of the tight supply situation, just as demand recovers from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.

At 19:06 GMT, April WTI crude oil futures are trading $61.34, up $2.08 or +3.52%.

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In other news, for the first time since November, U.S. drilling companies cut the number of oil rigs operating due to the cold and snow enveloping Texas, New Mexico and other energy-producing centers.

Daily April WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside on February 18 with the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

A trade through $62.29 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $57.31.

The minor trend is up. A trade through $58.60 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum to down.

The first minor range is $62.29 to $58.60. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at $60.45, making it the nearest support.

The second minor range is $57.31 to $62.29. Its 50% level at $59.80 is the next potential support level.

The main range is $51.53 to $62.29. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $56.91 to $55.64 will become the primary downside target area.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the April WTI crude oil market into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the first pivot at $60.45.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $60.45 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into $62.29, followed closely by $62.64.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $60.45 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with potential support coming in at $59.80 and $58.60. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $57.31 to $56.91.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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