Based on the early trade, the direction of the crude oil market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $57.35.
January West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures turned positive after reports of an explosion near the Port Authority bus terminal in midtown Manhattan. The market was also receiving a little support from optimism over the OPEC deal to limit supply, but gains were being capped by rising U.S. drilling activity which could lead to a further increase in U.S. production.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is close to shifting to the upside after the formation of a closing price reversal bottom last Thursday.
The main range is $55.00 to $59.05. Its retracement zone at $57.30 to $56.55 is support.
The minor range is $58.88 to $55.82. Its retracement zone at $57.35 to $57.71 is resistance. This zone is currently being tested.
Based on the early trade, the direction of the crude oil market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $57.35.
A sustained move over $57.35 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the Fibonacci level at $57.71. This price is a possible trigger point for an acceleration into the downtrending angle at $58.13.
A sustained move under $57.35 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a break into the main 50% level at $57.03. This is the trigger point for a break into the major Fib level at $56.55.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.