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James Hyerczyk
Crude Oil
Crude Oil

Concerns over lower demand are driving U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures lower on Thursday. The catalyst behind the selling is a slowing global economy. Lower demand for risk is also helping to accelerate the selling. Traders are also responding to negative comments about the trade deal with China by White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow. There is also breaking news that the Trump-Xi meeting is unlikely to take place before the March 1 deadline.

At 17:03 GMT, March WTI crude oil futures are trading $51.85, down $2.16 or -3.98%.

Daily March WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. The main trend will officially change to down on a trade through $51.33. A move through $55.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This signaled the shift in momentum.

The market is also trading lower for the week, putting the market in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The short-term range is $50.66 to $55.75. Its 50% level or pivot is $53.21. Trading on the weak side of this level is also contributing to the downside momentum.

The main range is $42.67 to $55.75. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $49.21 to $47.67 will become the primary downside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at $51.85, the direction of the March WTI crude oil market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $53.21.

Bearish Scenario

Trading on the weak side of the pivot at $53.21 will signal the presence of sellers. If this continues to generate the strong downside momentum then sellers may take a shot at the main bottom at $51.33. Taking out this bottom will change the main trend to down. The next target is another main bottom at $50.66. This is the trigger point for an acceleration into the major 50% level at $49.21.

Bullish Scenario

Overcoming $53.21 will indicate the return of buyers. This will only take place if there is a dramatic shift in the currently bearish fundamentals.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

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