Crude Oil Price Update – Stable-to-Higher Trade Ahead of API Inventories Report

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher at the mid-session. Earlier in the day, the market traded through last week’s high, but has since fallen back from that level.

The market continues to be supported by worries over tight global supplies, while being propped up by fresh COVID-19 restrictions in China and concern over a possible recession.

At 16:33 GMT, August WTI crude oil is at $119.62, up $1.37 or +1.16%. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is trading $90.97, up $0.61 or +0.68%.

API Weekly Inventories Report on Tap

Later today at 20:30 GMT, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventories data. U.S. crude inventories are forecast to have fallen by 1.2 million barrels the week-ended June 10, while gasoline stockpiles rose 800,000 barrels and distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were unchanged.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at $120.75. A trade through $114.90 will change the main trend to down.

The new minor range is $114.90 to $120.88. Its 50% level at $117.89 is new support. Two more minor pivots at $114.91 and $113.41 are additional support levels.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the $118.25 is likely to determine the direction of the August WTI crude oil futures contract into the close on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $118.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the June contract high at $121.17. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the July contract high at $123.18.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $118.25 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the pivot at $117.89 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into the support cluster at $114.91 – $114.90.