James Hyerczyk
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WTI Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are inching lower early Monday, following a 6% gain last week. The market is being supported by friendly demand outlooks from IEA and OPEC and a rapidly improving global economy. However, lingering concerns over rising COVID-19 cases may be keeping a lid on prices, suggesting the weakness is being fueled by profit-taking.

At 01:04 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $62.83, down $0.36 or -0.57%.

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Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $66.15 will change the main trend to up. A move through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend will change to down on a trade through $57.68. A new minor top has formed at $63.94. A trade through this price will reaffirm the minor trend.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47. Sellers are trying to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are trying to drive the market higher.

The minor range is $57.29 to $63.94. Its 50% level at $60.61 is a potential support price.

The main range is $67.29 to $51.04. Its retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25 is potential support. It’s also controlling the near-term direction of the market.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $63.47.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.47 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first potential downside target is the short-term 50% level at $62.29.

Buyers could come in on the first test of $62.29, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor 50% level at $60.61.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.47 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at $63.94. Overtaking this level could trigger the start of a drive into $66.15, followed by $67.20.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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