Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $65.91, Weakens Under $65.04

International-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading soft early Friday. The range is tight and volume low as many of the major players take to the sidelines ahead of this weekend’s G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan and the OPEC meetings in Vienna on July 1-2.

At the G-20 meeting, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on Saturday. While nothing major is expected to come out of this meeting, the outcome could set the tone for the OPEC discussions.

OPEC is expected to extend its current production cuts that have been in force since January 1, but depending on the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting, it may decide to make deeper cuts.

At 06:08 GMT, September Brent crude oil is trading $65.34, down $0.33 or -0.50%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $66.02 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through $59.39. This is highly unlikely, however, today’s session begins with the market inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Without any tops or bottoms in the vicinity of today’s price, a series of retracement levels is controlling the price action.

The main range is $73.35 to $58.47. Its retracement zone target is $65.91 to $67.67. The lower level of this zone stopped the rally earlier this week.

The intermediate range is $71.61 to $58.47. Its retracement zone at $65.04 to $66.59 is also acting like resistance.

Combining the two zones makes $65.04 to $65.91 a key resistance area. The market has been straddling this zone for three straight days.

A pair of short-term retracement zones at $62.71 to $61.92 and $62.25 to $61.35 are potential downside targets and support areas.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September Brent crude oil market on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $65.04.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $65.04 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of $65.91 and $66.02. Taking out $66.02 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into $66.59.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome $65.91 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out $65.04 could trigger an acceleration to the downside. Because of the way the market rallied throughout the week, the nearest potential downside target is $62.71.