Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $68.46, Weakens Under $67.59

U.S. Crude oil futures are trading slightly lower on Thursday. The market is trying to recover from an early session setback that was fueled by worries about future demand after China slapped another tariff on imported U.S. crude oil earlier in the session.

At 1244 GMT, October West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading $67.82, down $0.04 or -0.06%.

The market is being underpinned by supply concerns. One concern is over the sanctions on Iran, the other is yesterday’s U.S. government report showing a bigger-than-expected drawdown.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up on Wednesday when buyers took out the previous main top at $67.72. A trade through $63.89 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $71.29 to $63.89. The market is currently sitting inside its retracement zone at $67.59 to $68.46. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at $67.82 and the earlier price action, the direction of the October WTI crude oil futures contract today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $67.59.

A sustained move over $67.59 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the Fib level at $68.46. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into another main top at $68.86, a downtrending Gann angle at $68.92 and another main top at $69.19.

A sustained move under $67.59 will signal the presence of sellers. This move could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the first target angle coming in at $66.39.

Basically, look for the upside momentum to strengthen on a sustained move over $68.46. A downside bias will develop on a sustained move under $67.59.