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Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Under $64.11 Targets $62.96 to $62.80

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Mar 23, 2018, 12:24 UTC

The direction of the crude oil market today will be determined by whether buyers can maintain the upside momentum over $64.14 to $64.11.

Crude Oil

May West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures are trading higher shortly before the regular session opening after rebounding from earlier weakness. The market is currently trading slightly below the high for the year at $66.02, which is probably why it ran into resistance and selling pressure on Thursday.

Today’s recovery is being driven by concerns that the OPEC-led production cuts may be extended into 2019. Volatility is elevated due to fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China.

WTI Crude Oil
Daily May WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum may be shifting to the downside after yesterday’s closing price reversal top and subsequent confirmation earlier today.

A trade through $65.74 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend with $66.02 the next target. This is also a possible trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A trade through $64.14 earlier in the session confirmed yesterday’s closing price reversal top, but there wasn’t much of a follow-through to the downside with the selling stopping at $64.11. This price will have to be taken out with rising selling volume later today in order to signal a resumption of the counter-trend break.

A closing price reversal top will not mean the trend is changing to down, but it could be a sign that the selling is greater than the buying. This could fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The main trend is $66.02 to $57.60. Its retracement zone at $62.80 to $61.81 is new support. Holding above this zone will help maintain the upside bias.

The new short-term range is $60.18 to $65.74. Its retracement zone at $62.96 to $62.30 is new support. This zone is straddling the main Fibonacci level, making $62.96 to $62.80 the best support area.

Crude Oil (Close-Up)
Daily May WTI Crude Oil (Close-Up)

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the crude oil market today will be determined by whether buyers can maintain the upside momentum over $64.14 to $64.11.

Holding above $64.14 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for another drive into $65.74 then $66.02.

A sustained move under $64.11 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open under this level to $62.96 to $62.80.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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