Crude Oil Price Update – Trade Through $65.96 Will Make $64.22 New Main Bottom

Crude oil futures are trading higher shortly after the regular session opening on concerns about a possible steep drop in exports from Venezuela. Offsetting some of this potential supply disruption is surging U.S. production, which hit another record last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

At 1217 GMT, July West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is trading $65.40, up $0.67 or +1.05%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, traders may be trying to shift momentum to the upside with the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on Tuesday.

The chart pattern was confirmed on Wednesday, but there hasn’t been a follow-through move yet. Crude oil is trading inside yesterday’s wide range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

A trade through $64.22 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The minor trend changes to up on a trade through $68.67 and the main trend will change up on a move through $72.90.

The market is trying to establish support at a pair of 50% levels at $64.77 to $64.92. Resistance is a Fibonacci level at $66.00, followed by a series of rising 50% levels at $66.45, $67.32 and $68.56.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the July WTI futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $64.92 and $64.77.

A sustained move over $64.92 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum, we could see a move into $66.00, followed by $66.45. The latter is a trigger point for a possible acceleration to the upside with $67.32 the next likely upside target.

A sustained move under $64.77 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into the minor bottom at $64.22. Look for an acceleration to the downside under the bottom with $63.03 the next target.