January crude oil futures are trading higher but inside yesterday’s range after OPEC and other major producers decided to extend their production cut deal
January crude oil futures are trading higher but inside yesterday’s range after OPEC and other major producers decided to extend their production cut deal until the end of 2018. The inside move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.
The indecision is coming from investor concerns that U.S. production will continue to rise as crude oil prices rise. This will offset some of the OPEC production cuts and prevent the cartel-led group from trimming the excess global supply as fast as they prefer.
Traders should watch the hedge funds because they are not going to want to sit in a sideways market. If the rally fails to resume then they may start taking profits.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $59.05 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $56.75 will indicate the counter-trend selling is getting stronger. This could lead to an eventual shift in momentum to the downside.
The main range is $55.00 to $59.05. Its retracement zone at $57.03 to $56.55 is support.
The short-term range is $59.05 to $56.75. Its retracement zone at $57.90 to $58.17 is resistance.
Based on the current price at $57.69 and the earlier price action, the direction of the market today is going to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at $57.80.
A sustained move over $57.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential targets at $57.90, $58.00 and $58.17.
The rally begins to open up over $58.17 with target angle coming in at $58.43 and $58.74. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the $59.05 main top.
The inability to overcome $57.80 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move attracts enough sellers then look for the selling to extend into $57.03, followed by a support cluster at $56.55 to $56.50.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.