Crude Oil Price Update – Trading on Bullish Side of Monthly Retracement Zone

U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures surged to its highest level since December 2014 on the back of tightening supply and after OPEC leaders signaled they won’t be immediately boosting production to make up for the expected shortfall from the Iranian sanctions which begin on November 1.

November WTI Crude Oil futures settled at $72.08, up $1.30 or +1.80%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $67.79.

The market is up seven days from its last swing bottom so today’s session begins with crude oil in the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $69.98 will change the minor trend to down.

The contract range is $89.34 to $40.95. Its retracement zone is $65.15 to $70.86. The market is currently trading on the strong side of this major retracement zone after trading inside it since May. This is bullish because it indicates investor willingness to buy strength.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on yesterday’s close at $72.08, the direction of the November WTI Crude Oil futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $70.86.

A sustained move over $70.86 will signal the presence of buyers. The daily chart indicates there is no major resistance until the November 21, 2014 main top at $80.10.

A sustained move under $70.86 will indicate the return of sellers. Taking out $69.98 will change the minor trend to down.

Taking out yesterday’s high at $72.74 then closing lower will form a closing price reversal top. This is not likely to lead to a change in trend, but it will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.