Crude Oil Price Update – Weakens Under $62.15, Strengthens Over $63.15 This Week

April West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures finished higher last week. The market traded inside the previous week’s range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $66.39 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $57.90 will indicate momentum is shifting to the downside.

The short-term range is $66.39 to $57.90. Its retracement zone at $62.15 to $63.15 is the primary upside target. Trader reaction to this zone will also determine whether the rally continues, or the market starts to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

The intermediate range is $50.19 to $66.39. Its retracement zone is $58.29 to $56.38.

The main range is $47.41 to $66.39. Its 50% to 61.8% target is $56.90 to $54.66.

Coming the intermediate and main retracement zones makes $56.90 to $56.38 the best downside target area.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at $61.55, the direction of the crude oil market this week will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $62.15.

A sustained move over $62.15 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a move into the Fibonacci target at $63.15. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. It could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the $66.39 main top.

A sustained move under $62.15 will indicate the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open under this level so if we see heavy selling volume or fund liquidation, prices could fall sharply. The first target is $58.29, followed by $57.90.