Crude Oil Update – U.S. Bank Holiday Hurting Price Action

March West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is trading slightly higher on low volume shortly ahead of the regular session opening. Today is a bank holiday so volume and volatility may be below average. However, you have to be prepared for the occasional volatility spike.

Besides Wednesday’s weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration report, traders are also looking ahead to the January 21 -22 OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Vienna where the participants will discuss compliance with the deal to cut production.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trying to trend higher. A trade through $54.29 will indicate upside momentum is strengthening. A move through $51.59 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is $56.18 to $51.59. Its retracement zone at $53.89 to $54.43 is currently acting like resistance.

The short-term range is $51.59 to $54.29. Its retracement zone at $52.84 to $52.62 is the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $53.31 and the early price action, barring any surprise news, the market is likely to be rangebound today.

The nearest downside targets are a short-term 50% level at $52.84, the short-term Fibonacci level at $52.62 and the uptrending angle at $52.59.

The upside targets come in at $53.89 and $53.93.

Since the main trend is down, sellers may try to stop a rally on a move into $53.89 to $54.43. Aggressive counter-trend buyers may try to stop a price slide on a test of $52.84 to $52.62.