Crude Oil Weekly Forecast – Geopolitical Chaos Keeps Market Trapped

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market gapped lower to kick off the trading week, but has bounced a bit from the absolute lows, basically at the 200-week EMA. This is a market that is unfortunately being thrown around by headlines coming out of Washington and Tehran involving the Strait of Hormuz. It’s really not even a matter of supply and demand, at least not directly at this point, and unfortunately, traders are glued to their news feeds to see what the latest comments coming from Trump or the Mullahs in Iran or the Iranian military are.

Ultimately, this is a market that has been very wild and very choppy, and this is a market that has recently seen the $70 level as a major support level. It was a major resistance level, so we’ll see if that holds up on any selling. This area is one that I believe is important at the moment.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent looks very much the same. It gaps lower, swings all week wildly, touches the 200-week EMA, and then bounces again. This is a market as well, unfortunately being influenced by random comments, media manipulation, that type of thing. The actual supply and demand question: there are some concerns about global supply right now, and one would have to think that as long as the situation in the Middle East continues, there will be a certain amount of uncertainty.

Ultimately, the question isn’t so much what’s happened over the last week, but what’s going to happen over the weekend, and that puts traders in a very tough spot. With this, caution will be the biggest order of the day, as the uncertainty doesn’t look likely to go away at the moment.

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