Crude oil markets have fallen rather hard during the trading week to slice through support in both grades that I follow.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen rather hard during the week to slice through the $76 level. This was an area that had been supportive over the past couple weeks, so it is a bit of a negative sign. At this point, it looks like the 200-Week EMA could cause a bit of support, but it looks like the market is ready to go even lower at this point.
Keep in mind that although OPEC has decided to cut production by 2 million barrels a day, and even that has not lifted the market. This is because the demand is falling apart in what looks to be a global recession just waiting to happen.
Brent of course has done the same thing, slamming into the 200-Week EMA, after breaking down below the $80 level. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of volatility, but the size of the candlestick does suggest that we have further to go to the downside. I suspect rallies at this point will be sold into, although it might be from a lower timeframe such as the daily or the 4 hour chart.
Regardless, I just don’t see oil picking up at this point, especially as we start to head toward the end of the year, because liquidity could be a major issue. A lack of volume could cause for a lackluster market, but also has the ability to see the market spike in one direction or the other on some unforeseen news. All things being equal, this is a market that looks like it’s got further to go to the downside though.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.