Key Insights:
- BTC rallied 3.02% on Monday, ending the session at $43,332.
- BTC-spot ETF trading volumes drove buyer demand for BTC as GBTC stats suggest a further slowdown in BTC outflows.
- On Tuesday, BTC-spot ETF-related news, SEC v crypto case-related updates, and US lawmaker chatter need consideration.
BTC-Spot ETF Market Data Sends BTC to $43,000
BTC gained 3.02% on Monday. Reversing a 0.40% loss from Sunday, BTC ended the session at $43,332. Significantly, BTC held onto the $43,000 handle for the first time since January 16.
BTC-spot ETF market trading volumes drove buyer demand for BTC and the broader crypto market.
With a final hour of trading remaining, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Seyffart shared day 12 volumes. Trading volumes for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) were higher than GBTC trading volumes for the first time. The numbers suggested a further fall in net BTC outflows from GBTC and a second session of net inflows.
BTC reacted to the news, rallying to a high of $43,337 before easing back. Investor caution was evident before the BTC-spot ETF updates. BTC fell to a session low of $41,835 one hour before the Seyffart update.
However, according to end-of-day numbers, GBTC overtook IBIT to continue leading trading volumes on day 12 of trading.
Later in the session, BitMex Research released day 12 numbers, announcing GBTC outflows of $192 million. The downward trend in outflows continued, painting a rosier picture of the BTC-spot ETF market. On day 11, GBTC saw net outflows of $255 million.
BTC-Spot ETF Market to Become More Competitive
On Monday, Invesco and Galaxy cut the long-term fee on the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF from 0.39 bps to 25 bps. Excluding waivers, only Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Wisdomtree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW) have higher fees of 1.5% and 0.30%, respectively.
The announcement followed chatter of Charles Schwab wanting to enter the BTC-spot ETF market. On Friday, ETF Institute founder Nate Geraci speculated about Charles Schwab entering the market, saying,
“They may shock the world & offer something that’s 10bps in a few months.”
Adding,
“Schwab to enter the spot bitcoin ETF race? I say it’s already foregone conclusion. Agree w/Eric & believe will happen (sooner rather than later).”
Geraci responded to a post from Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Charles Schwab has an existing presence in the ETF market. Launching a BTC-spot ETF would be a logical step when considering Fidelity’s presence. Charles Schwab ranks itself as the fifth largest provider of ETFs.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
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Bitcoin Analysis
BTC remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.
A BTC break above the $44,690 resistance level would support a move to the $46,020 resistance level.
On Tuesday, investors must consider BTC-spot ETF flows/volumes and SEC v crypto case-related news.
However, a break below the $42,968 support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play.
The 14-Daily RSI reading, 56.47, indicates a BTC move to the $44,690 resistance level before entering overbought territory.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH sat above the 50-day and the 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.
An ETH breakout from the $2,350 handle would support a move to the $2,457 resistance level.
Investors should stay informed about developments related to ETH-spot ETFs.
However, a break below the 50-day EMA and $2,300 support level would bring the $2,143 support level into play. Buying pressure could intensify at $2,300. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the $2,300 support level.
The 14-period Daily RSI at 47.96 suggests an ETH fall to the $2,143 support level before entering oversold territory.
