APE price has been subject to intense volatility this month. With the bulls back in the driver's seat, can they find momentum to break the $2 barrier?
Apecoin (APE) price has gained 30% to rebound above $1.70 after experiencing a pull-back to a weekly low of $1.30 on Wednesday, November 22. On-chain data analysis examines how the resilience shown by Apecoin long-term investors could renew APE price prospects.
Apecoin (APE) is the native token that underpins the popular BoredApeYachtClub (BAYC) NFT ecosystem.
Tumbling to an all-time low, Apecoin price came within a whisker of losing the $1 support level on October 9, 2023. But since then APE token has rebounded 45%, as it hovers around $1.45 at press time on Friday, November 24.
A deeper inquest into the underlying on-chain data trends suggest that resilience shown by Apecoin long-term investors has been pivotal to the price recovery this month.
According to IntoTheBlock, there has been a positive trend divergence between the number of long-term and short-term holder APE addresses.
The Addresses by Time Held chart below shows that the number long-term addresses increased by 6,060 wallets since the start of November. Meanwhile, the Apecoin network recorded 3,800 fewer number of trader/short-term wallets during that period.
The Addresses by Time Held chart groups funded wallets on a blockchain network by the amount of time their tokens have remained unmoved.
Wallet addresses that have held their coins for at least 1-year are regarded as long-term holders. Conversely, short-term holders are those that have moved their coins within the past month.
An increase in the number of long-term investors is often a bullish signal. Firstly, since they move their holdings less frequently, APE coin price could experience lesser selling pressure.
Hence, this positive divergence could be a precursor to further APE price upswing.
The aggregate exchange order books chart, is another vital Apecoin on-chain metric that affirms the bullish momentum.
Recent readings from the trading logs of 10 crypto exchanges shows that the bulls currently have the upper hand. As depicted below, bullish APE traders have placed buy-orders 11.6 million APE at an average price of $1.40.
Meanwhile, the sellers have put 11.1 million APE tokens up for sale, at an average price of $1.95.
The exchange order books chart depicts the price distribution of the total buy/sell orders for an asset, across various crypto exchanges.
Currently, Apecoin market demand exceeds supply by nearly 500,000 APE. This a clear indication that the bulls are in the driving seat. Logically, when demand for an asset exceeds supply, the relative scarcity puts upward pressure on price as sellers compete to get their orders filled quickly.
In effect, many buyers may be inclined to raise prices towards the bull’s average asking price of $1.95 in the days ahead.
From an on-chain perspective, the rising number of long-term investors, and growing demand in the Apecoin spot markets will likely drive price toward $2.
The Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) data, which groups the current Apecoin investors according to their entry prices also confirms this prediction.
It depicts that 19,110 addresses had bought 72.8 million APE at the minimum price of $1.96. If those investors exit early, they could trigger an instant Apecoin price correction.
However, scaling that initial sell-wall could open the door to Apecoin price reclaiming $2 for the first time since August.
Still, the bears could invalidate that positive prediction if the Apecoin price wobbles below $1.2. But, in that case, the 9,820 addresses that bought 72.8 million APE tokens at the average price of $1.18 could offer initial support. If those investors HODL firmly, they will likely avert a major APE price reversal.
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.