Dax Index News: Trade Jitters and Inflation Outlook Influence DAX Forecast Today

DAX Extends Losing Streak as Trade Uncertainties Intensify

The DAX fell 0.44% on Thursday, May 29, adding to Wednesday’s 0.78% loss and closing at 23,933.

News of New York-based Court of International Trade blocking President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs sent the DAX to an early high of 24,255. However, an appeal against the ruling revived tariff uncertainty, weighing on risk sentiment.

Daniel Kral, Europe macro specialist at Oxford Economics, emphasized the complexity of US-EU trade, stating:

“EU-USD trade is subject to significant distortions driven by tax incentives (tariffs a blunt tool to fix). Ireland is<3% of EU economy but ~40% of the 🇪🇺’s goods trade surplus (inflated pharma pricing) and accounts for the full 🇺🇸 services trade surplus (IP offshoring by tech/pharma).”

Auto Stocks Stumble on Trade Developments

Uncertainty over US trade policy weakened demand for German auto stocks. BMW slid 1.58%, while Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz Group also posted losses.

Meanwhile, tech stocks advanced as investors reacted to Nvidia’s (NVDA) upbeat earnings report. Infineon Technologies advanced 0.74%.

German Retail Sales and Inflation in Focus

On Friday, May 30, the market focus turns to German retail sales and inflation data. Economists expect retail sales to rise 0.2% month-on-month in April, reversing a 0.2% fall from March. A higher reading may signal a pickup in economic momentum, boosting demand for DAX-listed stocks. Conversely, an unexpected fall in retail sales could dampen risk appetite.

Economists forecast Germany’s annual inflation rate to drop from 2.1% in April to 2% in May. A softer-than-expected print would take inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, fueling speculation about aggressive ECB rate cuts. A more dovish ECB rate path could lower borrowing costs, which would potentially boost corporate earnings. However, a higher reading may temper bets on multiple ECB rate cuts, impacting demand for German stocks.

While the data will influence demand for DAX-listed stocks, trade developments remain a key driver. Overnight, on May 29, the US Court of Appeals reinstated Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, reviving tariff uncertainty. Asian markets and US futures posted morning losses in response.

Wall Street Gains Ahead of Key US Inflation Data

US markets advanced on May 29 as investors reacted to upbeat sales results from Nvidia (NVDA) and trade headlines. The Dow gained 0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 climbed 0.39% and 0.40%, respectively.

Weaker-than-expected US economic indicators raised hopes for a Q3 2025 Fed rate cut, bolstering support for US stocks. US jobless claims increased from 226k (week ending May 17) to 240k (week ending May 24). Corporate earnings slid 3.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025 after rising 5.9% in Q4 2024.

US Personal Income and Outlays Report in Focus

Later in the May 30 session, US inflation data will influence sentiment toward the Fed rate path and risk appetite. Economists forecast the US Core PCE Price Index to rise 2.5% year-on-year in April, down from 2.6% in March.

A softer inflation reading may boost Fed rate cut bets, supporting demand for risk assets, including German stocks. Conversely, a higher print could lower Fed rate cut bets and fuel stagflation fears, impacting market sentiment.

Beyond the data, traders should monitor Fed reactions to the inflation report.

Outlook: What Could Drive the DAX Next?

The near-term DAX outlook will depend on inflation data, trade developments, and central bank cues.

• Bullish Case: Easing trade trends, softer inflation, and dovish central bank signals could send the DAX toward 24,500
• Bearish Case: Escalating trade tensions, hotter inflation, or hawkish central bank commentary may send the DAX toward 23,750.

As of Friday morning, the DAX futures were down by 51 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini dropped 69 points, reflecting sentiment toward trade developments.

Technical Setup Suggests Cautious Optimism

Despite Thursday’s decline, the DAX holds above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), suggesting underlying bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A return to the May 28 record high of 24,326 could pave the way toward 24,500. A sustained break above 24,500 would bring 24,750 into view.
• Downside risk: A break below 23,750 exposes the May 23 low of 23,275, with further support at 23,000.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 60.77, indicates the DAX has room to climb to 24,326 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Conclusion: Eyes on Data and Trade

Traders should closely track economic data releases, central bank commentary, and trade developments for guidance.

Explore our exclusive forecasts to see whether trade optimism can send the DAX to new highs. Read our latest DAX research and macro insight here and consult our economic calendar.