Defense Stocks Could be Set for a Strong 2026 as Geopolitical Uncertainty Continues to Shape Investment Strategies

Although artificial intelligence has been the star of global stocks and shares for the past three years, mounting geopolitical uncertainty appears set to create a more complex outlook for markets looking to 2026 and beyond.

Defense stocks have consistently outperformed benchmarks in recent years, owing to the flare-up of geopolitical conflicts worldwide in the post-pandemic landscape.

The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), for instance, has rallied 150% over the past five years, while also posting growth of more than 54% over the past 12 months alone.

More recently, the United States’ military involvement in Venezuela has prompted a surge in global defense stocks as hard power appears to be an emerging theme for 2026 and beyond.

Stocks in Europe and Asia posted strong gains in the wake of the overthrow of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by US forces, with investors expecting more global nations to ramp up their focus on rearmament in the months ahead.

Global Implications

In the days that followed the United States’ involvement in Venezuela, defense stocks in Europe, such as leading German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and military technology specialists Hensoldt, climbed more than 8% and 7%, respectively.

In Italy, aerospace and security firm Leonardo rallied more than 5%, while Swedish fighter jet manufacturer Saab added more than 6%.

Asian defense stocks posted similarly impressive gains, with Japan’s IHI Corp rallying 9%, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries posted more than 8% growth.

Korean firm Hanwha Aerospace also climbed 7% higher, underlining the international reach of recent developments in Venezuela.

Market growth on Wall Street was more muted than its global peers, with the likes of fighter jet market leader Lockheed Martin and military aircraft firm Northrop Grumman posting growth of more than 2% each.

Although the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) only notched 1% higher, it managed to reach a new all-time intraday record to underline the growing prominence of defensive stocks at a time when more investors are identifying it as a sector that’s becoming increasingly important worldwide.

Opportunities in Diversification

Growing investor appetite for defense stocks comes at a time when more investors are becoming increasingly divided over the long-term strength of the ongoing artificial intelligence rally on Wall Street.

At a time when the AI sector is subject to inflated valuations, the relatively low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of defense leaders make the sector a strong opportunity for diversifying investor portfolios for greater resilience against any prospective frailties in high-tech industries.

The uneven impact of geopolitical uncertainty can uncover wider diversification strategies for investors, particularly for those wary of inflated valuations on the S&P 500.

Unlike the Wall Street heavy AI sector, defense stocks can open the door to global investment strategies, building exposure to European and Asian markets as well as those in the Americas.

As we’ve seen from the recent events in Venezuela, defense stocks can also form a correlation with oil and other energy sectors. Although oil remained stable in recent days, investors appear to be identifying an opportunity for an increase in supply to support the industry on a more long-term basis.

For investors wary of becoming too exposed to tech-focused stocks, strength in the defense sector may come at a time when diversification is becoming more of a priority on Wall Street.

Volatility to Continue

Although 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the defense stock, it appears likely that the investment strategy will remain prone to high levels of volatility despite its relatively consistent rate of growth since Russia’s conflict in Ukraine in early 2022.

For instance, December saw European defense stocks tumble as the Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that he would be willing to drop his ambitions to join NATO in a bid to accelerate a prospective peace agreement with Russia.

The unexpected nature of the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by the United States also presents a challenge for investors to anticipate events that could carry a major impact on markets.

With this in mind, the investors exposed to defensive stocks will need to maintain a relatively strong appetite for risk and be willing to expose themselves to short-term price movements.

Geopolitics to Shape Markets

As investors continue to look for new strategies as a hedge against the long-term future of the artificial intelligence boom in 2026, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty appears set to push defense stocks higher on a global scale.

This can present plenty of opportunities for diversification in terms of incorporating stocks on a global scale as well as seeking other investments in adjacent sectors like energy. However, price volatility will continue to be a challenge as the unpredictable geopolitical landscape throws up fresh challenges in timing markets.

2026 may be the year of the defense stock, but investors will need to stay switched on to anticipate market movements in a year that’s likely to be as unpredictable as ever when it comes to geopolitics.