Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Edge Lower Ahead of Key US Data, Fed Talks

US stock futures edged lower early in the Asian session on Tuesday, November 25, after the Nasdaq 100 had its best day since May in the previous session. Traders locked in profits after two positive sessions as markets reacted to resurging bets on a December Fed rate cut. Incoming US economic data later on Tuesday could shift sentiment toward the Fed rate path.

However, the morning pullback was modest, with easing US-China trade tensions cushioning the downside. US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping shared positive updates from an overnight call, raising hopes that Beijing and Washington would stick to the one-year trade truce.

Meanwhile, rising risks of the Japanese government intervening in the forex markets to bolster the yen sent USD/JPY lower, curbing yen carry trades into US stock futures. USD/JPY fell 0.14% to 156.688 in morning trading.

US-China Trade Talks and Nvidia Chip Sales in Focus

US-China trade talks lifted market sentiment in the Asian session on Tuesday, November 25. President Trump shared details of the call, stating it was very good, while declaring a visit to Beijing in April. President Xi also reportedly agreed to a state visit, signaling a thawing in US-China relations.

Crucially, President Trump was also reportedly considering allowing Nvidia (NVDA) to sell advanced chips to China in a foreign policy shift. Last week, Nvidia announced a positive outlook on earnings despite factoring in zero chip sales to China. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 could reverse early losses if Trump greenlights Nvidia chip sales to China.

US Stock Futures: Fed Speakers, Retail Sales, and Producer Prices in Focus

Futures posted losses during the Asian session. The Dow Jones E-mini fell 63 points, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini declined 14 points, while the S&P 500 E-mini slipped 4 points.

Later on Tuesday, US economic data and Fed speakers will take center stage as markets lift bets on a December rate cut. Rising producer prices and a pickup in retail sales could support a more hawkish Fed policy stance, weighing on US equity futures.

Economists expect retail sales to rise 0.4% month-on-month in September after increasing 0.6% the previous month. Meanwhile, economists forecast producer prices will rise 2.7% year-on-year in September, up from 2.6% in August.

Other stats include ADP employment and consumer confidence figures. However, producer prices and retail sales are likely to be the key drivers during the Tuesday session.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches given increased support for a December rate cut.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite the morning’s losses, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini remained above their 50-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini traded below the 50-day EMA, signaling a bearish bias.

Near-term trends will hinge on the upcoming US data and Fed speeches. Key levels to monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: 50-day EMA (46,653), 47,000, 47,500, and the November 12 record high of 48,528.
• Support: 46,000, and then 45,500.

Nasdaq 100

• Resistance: 25,000, 25,500, 26,000, and then the October 30 record high of 26,399.
• Support: the 50-day EMA (24,913), 24,500, and then 24,000.

S&P 500

• Resistance: the October 30 record high of 6,954, and then 7,000.
• Support: the 50-day EMA (6,706), 6,500, and then 6,250.

Market Outlook: US Data and the Fed in the Spotlight

Traders could face increased volatility as US data may shift bets on a December rate cut. The absence of crucial CPI and jobs data exposes US stock futures to leading inflation indicators, such as producer prices. Retail sales will also influence risk appetite, given that private consumption contributes around 65% of US GDP.

With key data in focus, traders should monitor FOMC members’ comments for further insights into monetary policy.

Follow our live coverage and consult the economic calendar for real-time market updates.