Natural Gas Price Forecast: Low of Day Tests 20-Day & Internal Trendline Support

Monday’s Support Test

Natural gas extended its brief consolidation pullback Monday, declining to a three-day low of $4.59 before buyers triggered a decisive intraday recovery that erased much of the move. The decline halted at the rising 20-day moving average and a key internal uptrend line—both now converged around the $4.54 zone—forming one of the strongest dynamic support clusters in the advance.

Strengthened 20-Day Relationship

The 20-day average has become the centerpiece of recent price action. Prior to last week’s successful defense, three earlier pullbacks briefly undercut the line only to be immediately reclaimed; today’s instant rejection from the converged zone demonstrates progressively stronger demand and a clearly improving structural relationship with this critical benchmark.

Higher Swing Low Development

With follow-through above today’s low, the $4.59 level will officially register as another higher swing low above last week’s $4.46 low print, extending the textbook series of higher lows that has defined the rally since the October bottom and reinforcing the underlying bullish trends integrity.

Upside Conviction Required

Bulls still need strong weekly conviction to deliver a sustained breakout above last week’s $4.81 lower swing high. Clearing that level erases the only bearish blemish on the chart and directly targets the March 2025 trend high near $4.95 alongside the full 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire August-to-March bear move.

First Meaningful Bearish Signal

A sustained daily decline below the 20-day average and today’s $4.59 low would constitute the clearest bearish warning yet, immediately placing the November $4.46 swing low in jeopardy. Only a decisive break beneath that level would fully invalidate the higher high/higher low sequence and shift the intermediate trend bias.

Outlook

Monday’s textbook defense of the 20-day/internal trendline confluence strongly favors continuation of the higher-low pattern and keeps buyers firmly in control. Protect the $4.59–$4.54 zone to maintain structural integrity and set up a weekly assault on $4.81 toward $4.95; sustained trade below the 20-day line would redirect attention to the November $4.46 low as the next make-or-break decision point.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.