Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 Futures Advance on Trade Hopes; Services PMI Up Next

US Stock Futures Rise as White House Confirms Xi Meeting After Policy Reversal

US stock futures advanced alongside the broader Asian equity markets in early morning trading on Friday, October 24. After initially signaling uncertainty earlier this week, the White House confirmed that President Trump and President Xi will meet on Oct. 30.

Earlier this week, before the confirmed meeting, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese shipments bound for the US to 155% and to restrict global shipments to China containing US software. The US President also suggested he may not meet with President Xi. Crucially, the planned October 30 meeting will happen just two days before the 155% tariff is set to take effect.

Market focus remains on US-China trade talks despite China continuing to diversify exports to other markets. The Kobeissi Letter commented on recent export trends to the US, stating:

“China’s exports to the US fell 18% YoY in the first 9 months of 2025, to $317 billion, the lowest in 5 years. Since 2022, exports have declined 29%, or $131 billion. This is comparable to levels seen in the first 9 months of 2017, at $309 billion, when the first trade war began. Additionally, shipments of small packages have plunged 50% since April to $1.15 billion in September. Trade between the two largest economies is rapidly slowing.”

Hopes of a potential trade deal lifted demand for US stock futures and Asian equities. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.70% in morning trading, while Mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.63%.

News that Chinese state oil firms suspended Russian oil purchases in response to US sanctions further boosted expectations of a US-China trade deal.

US Stock Futures Eye Two-Day Winning Streaks

US stock futures looked to extend their gains from the Thursday session, as easing US-China trade tensions lifted sentiment. The Dow Jones E-mini rose 7, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini gained 51 points, and the S&P 500 E-mini advanced 7 points.

Markets have cemented bets on 25-basis point Fed rate cuts in October and December, boosting demand for risk assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probabilities of 25-basis point Fed rate cuts in October and December stand at 98.3% and 93.4%, respectively.

US Economic Data in Focus

Across the Pacific, US economic data could influence the Fed’s monetary policy stance and risk sentiment.

Economists forecast the S&P Global Services PMI to fall from 54.2 in September to 53.5 in October. A sharper drop in the headline PMI, falling prices, and job cuts could fuel speculation about more aggressive rate cuts. A softer PMI could lift sentiment. However, stagflation fears may rise if it drops below the 50 neutral level, potentially triggering a flight-to-safety.

On the other hand, a higher headline PMI reading, rising prices, and increased headcounts could temper bets on a December Fed rate cut, weighing on risk assets.

The Services PMI will be the first major data release since the prelim University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment on October 10, exposing traders to potential market volatility.

The Services PMI will be the key data release. However, the finalized University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment also requires consideration.

According to the preliminary survey, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slipped from 55.1 in September to 55.0 in October. A downward revision would support a more dovish Fed rate path, given that waning sentiment could signal a pullback in consumer spending. Weaker spending may dampen demand-driven inflation. Conversely, an upward revision may ease expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Following the morning gains, US stock futures held above key technical levels, reaffirming the bullish momentum.

However, the near-term trends hinge on US-China trade developments and US economic data. Key levels traders should monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: 47,000, the October 21 record high of 47,334, then 47,500.
• Support: 46,750, 46,500, the 50-day EMA (46,081).

Nasdaq 100

• Resistance: October 9 record high of 25,394, then 25,500.
• Support: 25,000, 24,500, the 50-day EMA (24,468).

S&P 500

• Resistance: October 9 record high of 6,812, then 7,000.
• Support: 6,750, the 50-day EMA (6,625), and 6,500.

Market Outlook: US Data to Spotlight the Fed

Traders should brace for market volatility, with key US data out for the first time in two weeks. Meanwhile, US-China trade headlines need consideration, given the US administration’s shifting signals.

Follow our live coverage and consult the economic calendar for real-time market updates.