E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – April 25, 2018 Forecast

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly lower shortly after the cash market opening after giving up earlier gains. The trade seems to be a little tentative as investors continue to assess the impact of rising interest rates on future corporate earnings and the economy.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum appears to be ready to shift to the downside. This will occur if sellers can extend the break under a short-term retracement zone. If they can’t then all we’re looking at is a normal retracement in a developing uptrend.

The short-term range is 23306 to 24827. Its retracement zone at 24067 to 23887 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will dictate the direction of the market today.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The daily chart clearly shows the way of least resistance is down. Based on the early price action, the direction of the Dow today will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 23887.

Holding 23887 will signal the return of buyers. This could lead to a test of the 50% level at 24067 then a Fib level at 24157. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. However, don’t expect much of an acceleration to the upside because of layers of potential resistance levels.

If another short-term term range develops between 24827 and 23786 and the rally gains traction then look for a move into its retracement zone at 24307 to 24429.

Taking out 23887 with conviction could trigger the start of an acceleration to the downside. The first target is yesterday’s low at 23786. Taking out this level could lead to a test of a minor bottom at 23700.

A move through 23700 could trigger a further break into 23361 then 23306.

Basically, bullish traders are trying to establish a secondary bottom between 24067 and 23887. If successful, they’ll take another run at taking out the last main top at 24827. If the zone fails then we could see a retest of 23306 over the near-term.