E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – April 5, 2019 Forecast

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening, but giving back more than half of its earlier gains. The initial reaction to the headline number from the U.S. jobs report was bullish, but the price action suggests that perhaps investors are showing concerns about wage growth.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 196,000 jobs in March, exceeding trader estimates of 175,000. The unemployment rate also held steady at 3.8 percent as expected. Wage gains weakened slightly, increasing just 0.14 percent for the month and 3.2 percent year over year. Traders were looking for a monthly pace of 3.4 percent.

At 14:42 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 26443, up 55 or +0.22%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. This was reaffirmed earlier in the session. A trade through today’s intraday high at 26509 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. A trade through 25377 will change the main trend to down.

The uptrend is safe today, but nine days up from the last main bottom puts the market in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Therefore, traders should watch the price action and order flow on a test of yesterday’s close at 26388. Turning lower for the session will indicate the selling is greater the buying at current price levels.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at 26529.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 26529 will indicate the presence of buyers. Crossing to the bullish side of this angle will put the market in a bullish position with the next major upside target the October 3, 2018 main top at 26988.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 26529 will not necessarily be bearish but it will indicate the buying is getting weaker, or the selling is getting stronger. Turning lower for the session will indicate strong selling pressure.

If a closing price reversal top forms, then look for a 2 to 3 day rally with the first target an uptrending Gann angle at 25953.