E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Counter-Trend Buyers Trying to Push Market Through 26313

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Monday after a “gap and go” opening during the pre-market session drove the market into a key retracement zone. Although the main trend turned lower on the move, the Dow has managed to claw back more than half of its earlier losses. Traders now face a critical decision on a test of a short-term retracement zone.

At 17:28 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 26258, down 241 or -0.91%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend turned down earlier in the session when sellers took out the previous main bottom at 26060. A trade through 25932 will signal a resumption of the downtrend, while a move through 26694 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 26518 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 25377 to 26694. Its retracement zone at 26036 to 25088 was the primary downside target. It provided support earlier in the session when buyers came in to stop the selling at 25932.

The new short-term range is 26694 to 25932. Its retracement zone at 26313 to 26403 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers may come in on a test of this zone.

This zone is critical to the direction of the market. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone in an effort to form a secondary lower top. Aggressive counter-trend buyers are going to try to take out this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current price action, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 26313.

Bearish Scenario

Since the main trend is down, sellers may try to stop the rally at 26313. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for another sharp break into the main 50% level at 26036, followed by today’s low at 25932 and the main Fibonacci level at 25880.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over the 50% level at 26313 will signal the presence of aggressive counter-trend buyers. This could trigger a spike into the Fibonacci level at 26403. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level. However, this price is also the trigger point for an acceleration into 26518.