E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – January 16, 2017 Forecast

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower shortly before the regular session opening. Volume and volatility are expected to be below average because of a U.S. bank holiday. However, investors have to be prepared for occasional volatility price spikes.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum appears to be shifting to the downside.

A trade through 19925 and 19933 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 19661 will turn the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 19933 to 19661. Its 50% level or pivot is 19797. This price will control the direction of the Dow today.

The main range is 19001 to 19933. If there is a major correction then its retracement zone at 19467 to 19357 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 19787, the direction of the Dow today will be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at 19797. This is a combination of the short-term pivot ant a downtrending angle.

A sustained move under 19797 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside since the next major target doesn’t come in until 19692, followed by 19961.

A sustained move over 19797 will indicate the return of buyers. This could create the upside momentum needed to test the next downtrending angle at 19865. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 19925 and 19933 main tops. Overcoming the uptrending angle at 19897 will put the Dow in an extremely bullish position.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 19797 all session. This is the most important price today.