E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – July 6, 2018 Forecast

Dow futures are trading nearly unchanged as we approach the cash market opening. The market was up earlier in the session, but sold-off shortly before the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1230 GMT. The Dow returned to breakeven, shortly after the release of the report.

At 1255 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 24342, down 1 or 0.00%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on June 28. A trade through 23978 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. It will change to up on a trade through 24445. This will also confirm the shift in momentum to up. A trade through 24496 will reaffirm the momentum.

The main range is 23500 to 25418. Its retracement zone at 24459 to 24233 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Dow.

The short-term range is 25418 to 23978. Its retracement zone at 24698 to 24868 is the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the combination of Gann angles at 24266 and 24204 and the Fibonacci level at 24233.

A sustained move over 24266 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take a run at the 50% level at 24459. If buying volume continues to increase over this level then look for a potential acceleration to the upside with 24698 the next major target.

A sustained move under 24204 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open under this Gann angle so we may start to see increased selling pressure. Early targets come in at 24026 and 23978.

A pair of uptrending Gann angles come in at 23852 and 23676. The latter is the last potential support angle before the 23500 main bottom.

Essentially, the next major move in the Dow will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 24459 and the Fibonacci level at 24233. A strong upside bias could develop on a sustained rally over 24459 and a strong downside bias could develop under 24233.