E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Needs to Hold Weekly Pivot at 26302 to Sustain Upside Momentum

The E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract closed lower last week. The weakness was attributed to trade concerns and a drop in bank stocks following the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions. Underpinning the market was a solid performance by shares of Apple. The Dow also posted an inside move which tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. It could also indicate a transition from uptrend to downtrend, but it’s too early to tell.

For the week, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 26476, down 278 or -1.04%.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 26820 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 24000.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 25784 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 25784 to 26820. Its 50% level or pivot at 26302 was support last week.

The next minor range is 24970 to 26820. Its 50% level or pivot at 25895 is the next support.

The main range is 24000 to 26820. Its retracement zone at 25410 to 25077 is the primary downside target.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 26476, the direction of the December E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 26302.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 26302 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for investors to make a run at 26820 or a new all-time high.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 26302 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep break into the next minor pivot at 25895. This is followed closely by a steep uptrending Gann angle at 25792 and a minor bottom at 25784.

If 25784 is taken out then look for the selling to continue into the main retracement zone at 25410 to 25077.