E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – November 16, 2015 Forecast

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly better shortly before the regular session opening. Sellers came in early in the session due to heightened geopolitical risks, but either aggressive buyers came in or the selling dried up to produce a rebound rally.

The main trend is still up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been to the downside since the November 4 top at 17906. Today is also the eighth day down from this top, putting the market in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The key number to watch today is Friday’s close at 17206. Trader reaction to this level is likely to determine the direction of the market today.

A sustained move over 17206 will signal the presence of buyers. Crossing to the strong side of the Fib level at 17218 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. The next targets are 50% level at 17350 and a steep downtrending angle at 17394.

The angle at 17394 is the trigger point for a potential upside breakout with the next target a downtrending angle at 17650.

A sustained move under 17206 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is the intra-day low at 17052. This is followed by a long-term uptrending angle at 16887. The primary downside target remains the retracement zone at 16853 to 16604.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 17206 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control. A close over this level will produce a closing price reversal bottom. This could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day rally.