E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Short-Term Pivot at 6954.75 Controlling Price Action

The tech-driven index is trading slightly higher, but inside Friday’s range. The move suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Although the market did not post a closing price reversal bottom on Friday, it did close above the mid-point of the session and the opening, suggesting a possible shift in momentum.

At 0336 GMT, the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is trading 6916.75, up 23.50 or +0.34%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 6734.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next three bottoms are lined up at 6590.50, 6493.00 and 6385.25.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 7368.50. I don’t expect a change in trend today, however, the index also begins the session in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 7175.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The contract’s retracement zone at 6822.75 to 6609.00 is the major support. It held as support last week when the selling stopped at 6734.25. Holding above this zone will give the index an upside bias. Conditions could worsen if this zone fails as support.

The minor range is 7175.00 to 6734.25. Its 50% level or pivot is 6954.75. This level is controlling the short-term direction of the index.

The main range is 7368.50 to 6734.25. Its retracement zone at 7051.50 to 7126.25 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 6954.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6954.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the main 50% level at 7051.50. Look for sellers on the first test of this level. Overcoming it with increasing volume could extend the rally into the main Fibonacci level at 7126.25, followed by the minor top at 7175.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6954.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the major 50% level at 6822.75.

A failure to hold 6822.75 could extend the break into last week’s low at 6734.25. This is followed by a major Fibonacci level at 6609.00 and the May 3 bottom at 6590.50.