E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Way of Least Resistance is Down

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures closed higher on Monday as investors shrugged off the week-end bombing of Syria and shifted their focus to earnings.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Monday’s rally took out Friday’s high, negating the potentially bearish closing price reversal top, but the lack of follow-through to the upside suggests a tentative trade.

The Dow is now up 10 days from its last main bottom. Tops usually occur during the 7-10 day period so I wouldn’t be surprised by a near-term correction.

The choppy trade over the past two months has produced a number of trading ranges. These, in turn, have produced a series of retracement levels that have been providing support and resistance.

Based on Monday’s close at 24560, the nearest resistance is a 50% level at 24569 and a Fibonacci level at 24684.

The next resistance is a pair or levels at 24867 and 24923. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 25347 the next major resistance.

On the downside, the first support is a 50% level at 24477. This price is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 24157 the next major support.

The new short-term range is 23306 to 24644. If a correction were to start then its retracement zone at 23975 to 23817 would become the primary downside target.

The daily swing chart suggests that we’re likely to continue to see a slow grind to the upside until the buying is strong enough to take out 24923.

The downside is more vulnerable with the potential for a hard break if 24477 is taken out with conviction.