E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis –

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are rebounding late in the session on Monday as investors continue to position themselves ahead of the start of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are hoping for cues from Fed policymakers amid caution over rising borrowing costs spurred by a massive fiscal stimulus bill signed last week by President Joe Biden.

At 18:20 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32739, up 74 or +0.23%.

According to Reuters, while there are some expectations that the Fed might try to calm bond markets – yields have risen some 60 bps since the last Fed meeting – the consensus view is Fed Chief Jerome Powell will not make changes to policy settings.

“The Fed is not expected to tinker with its monetary policy but instead communicate via forecasts that the situation is under control and that markets are running way ahead of themselves,” SEB analysts said in a note.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analyst

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend resumed on Monday when buyers took out Friday’s high at 32715. A trade through the intraday high at 32822 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend changes to down on a move through 30429. This isn’t likely but the Dow is up seven sessions from the last swing bottom, putting it inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 31613 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 31613 to 32822. Its 50% level at 32218 is the first downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Due to the prolonged move in terms of price and time, the direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 32665.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32665 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the uptrend to continue.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32665 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 32218.

A close under 32665 will form a closing price reversal top on the daily chart. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with 32218 the first downside target, followed by a second 50% level at 31626.