E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Break Below 31188 First Sign of Weakness

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures moved higher on Monday, hitting a record high, as investors remained optimistic about further fiscal stimulus and an economic recovery. The blue-chip index was also driven higher by a more than 4% jump in the energy sector with international-benchmark Brent crude futures settling above $60 per barrel for the first time in more than a year.

At 20:30 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 31224, up 184 or +0.59%.

In other news, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged Congress on Sunday to pass President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan, saying if it does, the U.S. could return to full employment by 2022.

Meanwhile, the Senate and House each passed a budget resolution on Friday, starting the reconciliation process that would allow Biden’s $1.9 trillion rescue package to get through the Democratic-held Senate with a simple majority.

Finally, Dow component Chevron rose more than 2.50%, lifted by the rise in oil prices.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up when buyers took out the previous record high at 31188. A trade through 29552 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 29552 to 31265. Its 50% level at 30409 is new support. It will move higher with each new advance.

The intermediate range is 29318 to 31265. Its retracement zone at 30292 to 30062 is another rising support zone.

If the main trend changes to down then 28569 to 27932 will become the primary downside target area.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract into the close will be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 31042.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31042 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 31265 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. There is no resistance.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31042 will signal the presence of sellers. A close under this level will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This chart pattern won’t indicate a change in trend, but if confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction into at least 30409.

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