E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 32984 Sets the Tone

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower during the pre-market session on Monday as traders prepare for the possibility of heightened volatility this week due to quarterly-rebalancing. The recent surge in government bond yields could set up pension fund and other major investors for big adjustments in their portfolio.

At 07:18 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32847, down 107 or -0.32%.

Additionally, although the U.S. stock markets are closed on Friday, the government is still scheduled to release its March Non-Farm Payrolls report. Economists expect 630,000 jobs were added in March, and the unemployment rate fell to 6% from 6.2%, according to Dow Jones.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 33116 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 30429 will change the main trend to down. A trade through 32984 will turn 31951 into a new main bottom.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 31951 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 33116 to 31951. Its 50% level at 32534 is support.

The second minor range is 31613 to 33116. Its 50% level at 32365 is another support level.

The short-term range is 30429 to 33116. Last week’s low at 31951 was formed just a little above its 50% level at 31777.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 32984.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32984 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into 33116. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32984 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into a pair of 50% levels at 32534 and 32365. Buyers could come in on a test of these levels, but a break under 32365 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major targets 31951 to 31777.

Side Notes

Due to the expected rebalancings and Friday’s holiday, we could see similar price action to Friday’s move. On Friday, the Dow traded sideways most of the session until a wave of buying came in shortly before the close.