E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – December 13, 2016 Forecast

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the regular session opening. There was no follow-through to the downside following yesterday’s closing price reversal top. Volume and volatility are expected to be below average today so you have to take any move with a grain of salt since the major players will be on the sidelines. Furthermore, the index is going through a rollover from the December to the March contract. This often creates a two-sided trade.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The index hit a new contract high on Monday but the session ended with a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. A trade through 4851.75 will confirm the chart pattern and signal a shift in momentum to the downside.

A trade through 4916.75 will negate the chart pattern. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside if there is better-than-average volume behind the move.

The short-term range is 4700.50 to 4916.75. Its retracement zone at 4808.50 to 4783.00 is the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 4886.00, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending angle at 4892.50.

Overtaking 4892.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge the reversal top at 4916.75.

A failure to overcome 4892.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next target is yesterday’s low at 4851.75. Taking out this price will not only confirm the closing price reversal top, but it could trigger an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at 4808.50, followed closing by the uptrending angle at 4796.50.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 4892.50 today. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us if the buying is getting stronger or if the sellers are taking control.