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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures posted a two-sided trade during the first hour of trading on Wednesday. The index was pressured by weakness in the so-called FANG stocks. Shares of tech-related companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet are all down about -0.7 percent. Apple is close behind with a 0.6% decline. Traders seem disappointed by President Trump’s State of the Union address and as earnings season winds down.

At 15:46 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly higher at 7013.75, up 5.75 or +0.08%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session. An intraday move through 7038.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The uptrend is safe at this time, however, due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index is inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top. We’ve already seen the higher-high so all we need is a close below 7008.00 to form the closing price reversal top. If confirmed on Thursday, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The major retracement zone is 7022.25 to 6792.75. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The short-term retracement zone at 6653.75 to 6494.75 is additional support.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 7022.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 7022.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking 7038.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then we could see an eventual test of the next main top at 7169.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 7022.25 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 7008.00 will put the index lower for the session. This will also put the index in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for an eventual test of the major 50% level at 6792.75.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below. 

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