E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Late Session Rally Preventing Bearish Reversal Top

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher late Friday after hitting another record high as traders weighed the prospects of new government fiscal stimulus as well as weaker than expected non-farm payrolls data.

We’ve seen a roller coaster trade on Friday with stocks first opening higher then breaking shorting after the mid-session after Democratic Senator Joe Manchin said he would “absolutely not” support a round of $2,000 stimulus checks. The tech index then rebounded to a new high after Manchin’s office clarified that he was undecided on any future stimulus proposal and was not outright opposed to an aid check of $2,000 for Americans.

At 20:11 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 13055.25, up 127.25 or +0.98%.

In economic news, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls fell by 140,000 in December against predictions of 50,000 to 71,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%. Traders were looking for a slight uptick to 6.8%. Average Hourly Earnings surprisingly jumped by 0.8%, much better than the 0.2% forecast.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed early Friday when buyers took out the closing price reversal top at 12959.75. The main trend will change to down on a move through 12491.25.

Minor 50% support come in at 12778.50 and 12641.25. This levels will continue to move up as the market moves higher.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 12928.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12928 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 13065.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12928 will signal the return of buyers. This will put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Side Notes

A close under 12928 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.