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James Hyerczyk

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching higher into the cash market close. Earlier today the market hit another record high then spent most of the session lower as buyers became tentative about holding long positions ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend. Throughout the trading session investors continued to assess the potential impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. Disappointing U.S. Retail Sales also weighed on prices.

At 21:00 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 9628.50, up 15.50 or +0.16%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was confirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out yesterday’s high. The main trend will change to down when sellers take out the last main bottom at 8966.00.

A change in trend is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index is still in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This chart pattern won’t change the trend to down, but it could signal the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 9511.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 9511.25 to 9659.25. Its 50% level or pivot is 9585.25. It provided support earlier today.

The second minor range is 9330.75 to 8659.25. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 9495.00.

The main range is 8966.00 to 9659.25. If the minor trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 9312.50 to 9230.75 will become the primary downside target.


Short-Term Outlook

Based on the prolonged move up in terms of price and time and Friday’s price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Thursday’s close at 9613.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 9613.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then buyers may take a run at the intraday high at 9659.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 9613.00 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep uptrending Gann angle at 9606.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. Taking out the first minor pivot at 9585.25 will also be a sign of increased selling pressure.

The pivot at 9585.25 is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the first target the minor bottom at 9511.25 and the second minor pivot at 9495.00.

If the second minor pivot fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the first uptrending Gann angle at 9373.50.

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