E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Move Through 6402.50 Confirms Weekly Reversal with 6494.75 to 6654.00 First Target Zone

Based on last week’s closing price reversal bottom and close at 6293.25, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at 6402.50.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished a most volatile week with a small gain. Although the fundamentals seem to be overwhelmingly bearish at this time, buyers came in last week when the market entered a long-term retracement zone. This move drew the attention of value investors and the market reversed to the upside. Aggressive counter-trend investors are going to try to claw back some of the losses from the October break, but first they will have to confirm the closing price reversal bottom chart pattern on the weekly chart.

Last week, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 6293.25, up 234.25 or +3.72%.

Weekly March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum may be getting ready to shift to the upside following last week’s dramatic and potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 7169.00. A trade through 5820.50 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The major support is a long-term retracement zone at 5872.00 to 5425.50.

The minor range is 7169.00 to 5820.50. Its retracement zone at 6494.75 to 6654.00 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers to come in on the first test of this area.

The main range is 7765.00 to 5820.50. Its retracement zone at 6792.75 to 7022.25 is the second target area.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s closing price reversal bottom and close at 6293.25, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s high at 6402.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6402.50 will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a potential rally into the first retracement zone at 6494.75 to 6654.00. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

Overcoming 6654.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further rally into the main retracement zone at 6792.75 to 7022.25.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome or sustain a rally over 6402.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a short-term break into 6111.50. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this level, but if it fails then look for a retest of the major 50% level at 5872.00, followed by last week’s low at 5820.50.

The downtrend will resume under 5820.50 with the next targets main bottoms at 5688.50 and 5686.50. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 5425.50 the next major downside target.

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