E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold Pivot at 7348.25 to Sustain Weekly Upside Bias

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures have been trading sideways for about four weeks, or since the Facebook earnings debacle. The longer-term trend is still up but upside momentum has slowed since the week-ending July 27. Short-term, the sideways price action indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. Longer-term, it could be indicating distribution, but this is unlikely with the other major indexes still grinding higher. The current price action suggests money is leaving the tech sector and moving into Dow and S&P stocks.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the closing price reversal top at 7530.00 the week-ending July 27 and its subsequent confirmation the week after.

A trade through 7530.00 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 6956.00.

The minor trend is up. A trade through 7166.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will be a further confirmation of a shift in momentum to down.

The short-term weekly range is 7530.00 to 7166.75. Its 50% level or pivot is 7348.25.

The intermediate weekly range is 6956.00 to 7530.00. Its retracement zone at 7243.00 to 7175.25 is support. This zone stopped the selling three weeks ago.

The main weekly range is 6339.00 to 7530.00. If there is a steep sell-off then its retracement zone at 6934.50 to 6794.00 will become the primary downside target.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on the recent price action, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 7348.25.

A sustained move over 7348.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the index into a downtrending Gann angle at 7466.00. This angle has provided resistance the last two weeks.

Overcoming 7466.00 could drive the index into the next downtrending Gann angle at 7498.00. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 7505.50 minor top and the 7530.00 main top.

Taking out 7530.00 could trigger a breakout into an uptrending Gann angle at 7619.00. Crossing to the strong side of this angle will put the index in an extremely bullish position.

A sustained move under 7348.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a spike into 7243.00, 7212.00, 7175.25 and 7166.75.

The minor bottom at 7166.75 is another trigger point for a steep break into 6979.00, followed by 6956.00 and 6934.50.