E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 16505.25 Sets the Tone on Friday

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading flat shortly after the cash market opening as investors prepare to close out one of the best annual performances on record.

The tech-focused NASDAQ-100 Index is set to finish over 20% this year, putting it on track for its ninth annual gain in 10 years. Names like Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms and Tesla have led NASDAQ’s gains this year.

At 14:39 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 16453.50, up 23.25 or +0.14%. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $400.14, down $1.41 or -0.35%.

This year’s strong gains came as the global economy began its recovery from the 2020 COVID lockdowns, while the Federal Reserve maintained supportive measures first implemented at the onset of the pandemic.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 28.

A trade through 16659.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 15492.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This confirms the shift in momentum. A trade through 16567.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15492.00. Its retracement zone at 16280.50 to 16130.00 is the nearest support.

The minor range is 15492.00 to 16659.50. Its retracement zone at 16075.75 to 15938.00 is the primary downside target and value zone.

On the upside, minor resistance is a pivot at 16505.25.

Daily Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16505.25. I wouldn’t be surprised if we closed there.

Overcoming 16505.25 will indicate the presence of buyers with 16567.50 the next target. A sustained move under 16505.25 could trigger a break into 16280.50.