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E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 9184.50 and 9138.50 Sets the Tone

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jan 23, 2020, 14:46 UTC

Based on the early price action and the current price at 9189.75, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of 50% levels at 9184.50 and 9138.50.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 9184.50 and 9138.50 Sets the Tone

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. The range is extremely tight and volume is well-below average as traders await further information on the impact of the coronavirus in China that has hospitalized over 600 and killed 17.

Later today, the World Health Organization (WHO) will decide whether to declare a global emergency over the outbreak. We’ve seen some light positon trimming on the news, however, we’re expecting to see heightened volatility once WHO makes its decision.

If WHO declares an emergency then look for the index to weaken as traders will start to price in the possibility of a significant global economic event. If WHO declares it a regional problem then U.S. stock prices could recover.

At 14:27 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 9189.75, down 6.00 or -0.07%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 9254.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 8678.00.

A change in the main trend is highly unlikely, but we could see a change in the minor trend and a normal 50% to 61.8% correction of the last rally.

The minor trend is up. A trade through 9114.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 9114.75 to 9254.00. Its 50% level is 9184.50.

The second minor range is 9023.00 to 9254.00. Its 50% level is 9138.50.

The short-term range is 8678.00 to 8254.00. Its retracement zone is 8966.00 to 8898.00.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 9189.75, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of 50% levels at 9184.50 and 9138.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 9184.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into 9138.50. Taking out this level will lead to a test of the minor bottom at 9114.75.

The minor bottom is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the uptrending Gann angle at 9277.25, followed by another minor bottom at 9023.00.

If 9023.00 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main 50% level at 8966.00.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above 9138.50 will signal the presence of buyers. Overtaking 9184.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 9254.00, followed by a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 9277.00 and 9318.00.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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