E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to Pivot at 11064.25 Sets the Tone Today

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly higher shortly before the cash market opening on Friday. The index is also trading inside yesterday’s range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Gains are likely being capped by today’s mixed Retail Sales Reports and uncertainty over the COVID-19 stimulus package.

At 13:09 GMT, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 11184.50, up 9.25 or +0.08%.

Retail sales for July rose 1.2%, the Commerce Department said. That was below the estimate of 2.3%. Excluding autos, Core Retail Sales rose 1.9% to top a forecast of 1.2%.

Additionally, sentiment is being kept in check as lawmakers seem unable to move forward with a coronavirus stimulus bill. With Congress taking a break, investors may have to wait until after the September Labor Day holiday to get a new fiscal stimulus package.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 11283.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through the nearest main bottom at 10845.50.

The minor range is 11283.25 to 10845.50. Its 50% level or pivot at 11064.25 is the nearest support.

The short-term range is 10301.00 to 11283.25. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to extend into its retracement zone at 10792.00 to 10676.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action and inside move suggests a rangebound trade on Friday. It also indicates that momentum will likely determine the direction of the market.

Taking out Thursday’s high at 11266.00 could trigger a breakout into 11283.25. This is another potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A move through Thursday’s low at 11094.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the minor pivot at 11064.25.

Taking out 11064.25 will be a sign of increasing selling pressure. If this is able to create enough downside momentum over the near-term then look for a test of the main bottom at 10845.50, followed by the 50% level at 10792.00.

Side Notes

With any breakout move, the success will be dictated by the size of the volume on the move. If playing for a breakout to the upside over 11266.00 or a breakdown under 11094.25, make sure you have strong buying or selling volume on your side. Otherwise, the moves will fail.