E-mini NASDAQ-100 Set Up for Plunge Under 13984.25

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading at their low of the session on Friday as worries over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine are encouraging jittery investors to shed risky assets ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend.

Meanwhile, speculations about the Federal Reserve’s next move have also weighed on equities. Earlier on Friday, New York Bank President John Williams said it would be appropriate to hike interest rates in March, without mentioning the magnitude.

At 20:53 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 13999.50, down 165.25 or -1.17%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $341.52, down $3.93 or -1.14%.

In stock related news, Intel Corp slipped 5% after the chipmaker forecast its profit margin to drop this year and then be steady for several years as it invests in new technologies and factories to meet rising chip demand.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 13906.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 14668.50 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 12263.50 to 16768.00. The index is currently testing the lower end of its retracement zone at 14515.75 to 13984.25.

The short-term range is 16659.50 to 13706.00. Its retracement zone at 15182.75 to 15531.25 is resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14164.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14164.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the Fibonacci level at 13984.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a steep plunge into the main bottom at 13706.00.

Taking out 13706.00 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the May 12, 2021 main bottom at 12968.00 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move over 14164.75 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a late session short-covering rally into 14515.75. This is the last potential resistance before the 14668.50 main top.